Austyn SmithUS,

November 16, 2011

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probability for middle school

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Austin Smith

Lesson Plan 3

Standard: Benchmark Number:** **MA.7.P.7.2

Subject Area: Mathematics,

Body of Knowledge: Probability

Grade: 7

Description: Determine, compare, and make predictions based on experimental or theoretical probability of independent or dependent events,

Objectives:

Students will be able to make mathematical guesses in relation to events with unpredictable outcomes. They will also be able it interpret the amount of risk an event has.

Materials:

· Computer lab

· Projector

· Fill-in notes

· Online black jack game

Description:

Students will be expected to know how to add and subtract fractions. These two applications are important for deriving an answer for the probability of an experiment. Prior to this lesson student will have observed probability questions and define if a particular outcome is likely/ unlikely and whether an experiment is fair or unfair. (Standard: MA.7.P.7.1) This thought process would continue into this lesson.

Note: MA.7.P.7.1 relates to more theoretical application.

Class will be in the computer lab. Class will begin with a warm up/ bell work game of black jack on the computer. This game will introduce the idea of chance and risk , which are key factors in probability. Students will have roughly five minutes to play. As students play, I will hand them their note packets (the packets are incomplete. Students will need to fill in blanks. There are also large spaces for students to include, examples, notes, etc.) Once time is called we will have a group discussion relating to the game and how it ties into math.

After the bell work we will begin the lecture. I will use the projector to display the notes and images of sample spaces and examples when it comes to it.

The initial question will be what is probability? What does it mean when you say “probably” when answering someone’s question? This will be defined.

{NOTE} Probability- Assume sample space S. A probability is the numerical value function that assigns P (A) to every A s.t.

Axioms:

· P(A) ? 0

· P(S) = 1

I will phrase this as “the chance of something happening” and I will further mention that these will numerically be fractions and the biggest it will ever be is 1 (meaning it definitely will happen)

The lecture will incorporate the demonstrations as I define phrases. The notes will have spaces so students can draw the sample spaces.

Demonstration:

Primary Examples I will use are events that happened in the game of blackjack.

Ex. The player has a 7and a jack. What i is the probability the dealer has at least a pair of equivalent value given he has an 9?

What is the probability the dealer has less than a 17?

If the player went for 21, what is the probability he gets a 4?

What is the probability he doesn’t bust?

Another example we will talk about relates to genetics in biology.

Ex. The probability a parent has a boy/girl. The probability a child will have red hair. (Extra data will be supplied for these)

Assessment:

Students will also be required to complete problems from the book as extra practice. These will be turned in for a grade.

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