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#### Description:

In this activity, similar to the Fire!! activity, students burn a simulated forest and adjust the probability that the fire spreads from one tree to the other. This activity also records data for each trial including the burn probability, where the fire started, the percent of trees burned, and how long the fire lasted. This activity allows students to explore the idea of chaos in a simulation of a realistic scenario. This activity includes supplemental materials, including background information about the topics covered, a description of how to use the application, and exploration questions for use with the java applet.

#### Subjects:

• Mathematics > General

English

#### Access Privileges:

Public - Available to anyone

Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial Share Alike

#### Collections:

None
Update Standards?

#### CCSS.Math.Content.7.SP.C.6: Common Core State Standards for Mathematics

Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability.

#### CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-IC.A.2: Common Core State Standards for Mathematics

Decide if a specified model is consistent with results from a given data-generating process, e.g., using simulation.

#### CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-MD.A.1: Common Core State Standards for Mathematics

(+) Define a random variable for a quantity of interest by assigning a numerical value to each event in a sample space; graph the corresponding probability distribution using the same graphical displays as for data distributions.

#### CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-MD.B.7: Common Core State Standards for Mathematics

(+) Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game).
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