November 11, 2016

This lesson is designed to further students' practice with probability as well as introduce them to conditional probability and probabilities of simultaneous independent events. The lesson provides links to discussions and activities related to conditional and simultaneous probabilities as well as suggested ways to integrate them into the lesson. Finally, this lesson provides links to follow-up lessons designed for use in succession with this one.

- Mathematics > General

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Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.

Decide if a specified model is consistent with results from a given data-generating process, e.g., using simulation.

Use data from a randomized experiment to compare two treatments; use simulations to decide if differences between parameters are significant.

Understand that two events A and B are independent if the probability of A and B occurring together is the product of their probabilities, and use this characterization to determine if they are independent.

Understand the conditional probability of A given B as P(A and B)/P(B), and interpret independence of A and B as saying that the conditional probability of A given B is the same as the probability of A, and the conditional probability of B given A is the same as the probability of B.

Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations.

Find the conditional probability of A given B as the fraction of B's outcomes that also belong to A, and interpret the answer in terms of the model.

(+) Calculate the expected value of a random variable; interpret it as the mean of the probability distribution.

(+) Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game).