We use recent polling data (current as of the middle of August 2008) to simulate the results of the upcoming November 2008 U.S. presidential election. We focus on the allocation of votes in the Electoral College rather than the popular vote. To generate a simulation, press the "resimulate" button, change the strength of state-specific polling effects, or change the strength of a national random swing in the polls between now and election day. In the live version of this Demonstration, placing your mouse over the states in the graphic shows the name of the state, the number of electoral votes possessed by the state (in parentheses), and the recent actual polling results for that state from Electoral-vote.com. Notice that there may be a difference between the current polling leader in the state and the ultimate winner of the state's electoral votes (indicated by red for McCain and blue for Obama). This effect will occasionally be observed because the simulation captures: (a) the uncertainty of information obtained through polling results that do not ultimately predict the results on election day; and (b) changes in voter preferences between now and election day.


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