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Most students understand that the probability of an event occurring can be influenced by another event that has already occurred. However, many students cannot understand that the probability of an event occurring can actually be dependent on an event that occurred later. Having information about the outcome of an event can be used to revise probabilities of the occurrence of a previous event. This lesson plan will help teachers to correct this common student misconception. For students with more probability experience, this lesson also introduces them to Bayesâ Theorem. Bayesâ Theorem provides a formula that to find one conditional probability if other conditional probabilities are known. More specifically, it can be used to find P(A|B) if P(B|A) is known.
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